Iron & Steel, Fertilisers and Aluminium are Egypt's primary CBAM-covered exports to the EU.
Egypt exports long steel products (rebar, wire rod), flat-rolled steel, and nitrogen fertilisers (ammonium nitrate, urea) to EU markets. Aluminium semi-finished products are a growing export category. Egypt directs a significant share of its nitrogen fertiliser output to the EU, with producers OCI and Abu Qir among the primary exporters. The majority of steel exports originate from integrated blast furnace and electric arc furnace facilities.
Global fertiliser supply is under structural pressure. Russia–Saudi Arabia trade tensions, Iran–USA conflict risk, and Strait of Hormuz closure scenarios are collectively tightening nitrogen fertiliser supply to European markets. Egypt — with OCI and Abu Qir as major producers — has the production capacity to capture significant EU market share.
The constraint is CBAM. Egypt’s ammonium nitrate default (2.41 tCO₂e/t) and urea default (1.40 tCO₂e/t) — the published values with the 2026 fertiliser mark-up — place Egyptian producers above the SEFA benchmark in most scenarios, meaning CBAM certificates are owed unless actual verified emissions are provided.
Producers who verify actual emissions before competitors will capture market share. Those who don't will cede it.
Source: IR (EU) 2026/1740 Annex I, which replaced the Annex I of IR (EU) 2025/2621 from 1 January 2026 · Default = the published total-emissions value · Net cost adds the Annex I mark-up once — 10% in 2026 and 30% from 2028 for cement, iron and steel, aluminium and hydrogen, 1% for fertilisers · Used when verified actual data is not provided
| Product | Sector | Default tCO₂e/t | Net cost 2026 €/t | Net cost 2030 €/t |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Grey Portland cement CN 25232900 | Cement | 1.2900 | €104.15 | €65.02 |
Anhydrous ammonia CN 28141000 | Fertilisers | 2.0500 | €151.97 | €80.27 |
Urea (solid) CN 31021019 | Fertilisers | 1.3900 | €103.04 | €54.43 |
Ammonium nitrate CN 31023090 | Fertilisers | 2.3900 | €177.18 | €93.58 |
Steel semi-finished (BF-BOF) CN 72071114 | Iron & Steel | 3.9959 | €322.62 | €201.39 |
Unwrought aluminium CN 7601 | Aluminium | 1.8700 | €150.98 | €94.25 |
Hydrogen CN 28041000 | Hydrogen | 10.8200 | €873.58 | €545.33 |
Net cost = default tCO₂e/t × €75.28 (Q2 2026, official price of CBAM certificates) × CBAM phase-in factor (2.5% in 2026, 48.5% in 2030). Actual liability depends on verified embedded emissions and SEFA benchmark deduction. Values shown are for illustrative default scenario only.
The table above shows EU default values — deliberately set above average to be conservative. For Egyptian producers with modern, efficient plants, actual embedded emissions are typically significantly lower. The financial gap between default and actual is the value at stake from verification:
Savings per tonne of product exported. Based on typical actual emission values — not verified for specific installations. Contact us for an installation-specific assessment.
Carbon pricing in Egypt: Egypt does not currently operate a domestic carbon pricing mechanism, national emissions trading scheme, or carbon tax applicable to CBAM-covered goods.
No carbon price is paid in Egypt on the production of CBAM-covered goods, so there is nothing for a declarant to deduct. Egypt has a voluntary carbon market and has announced a domestic framework, neither of which produces a price effectively paid on these goods. Your EU buyer's declarant pays the full certificate cost on embedded emissions above the benchmark — which is why proving your actual emissions, rather than accepting the default, is where the money is.
Our reading of Egypt's own published measures as at September 2026, not an EU-published value — third-country carbon policy changes without warning. Confirm the current position with advisers in the country of production before pricing anything on it.
An Egyptian government delegation visited Brussels in early 2026 — meeting DG TAXUD, DG CLIMA, ArcelorMittal, and the World Steel Association — to address a critical gap: the shortage of EU-accredited verifiers willing to conduct site visits outside Europe.
Of the EU's national accreditation bodies, only seven have indicated willingness to oversee verifications outside Europe — and they cannot meet demand. EGAC (Egypt) and UKAS (UK) are the only two non-EU bodies with EA/IAF-level recognition positioned to bridge this gap, but their formal approval under CBAM remains pending.
The practical implication for Egyptian exporters:
Verifier capacity is constrained. Egyptian exporters who move early to engage an accredited verifier secure their slot. Those who wait risk being unable to provide verified data before the September 2027 declaration deadline — and paying on default values by default.
Egyptian fertiliser and steel producers with EU export volumes above 50 tonnes should prioritise establishing a monitoring plan and engaging an accredited verifier before the September 2027 declaration. The gap between default values and actual verified emissions is commercially significant — particularly for ammonia producers using efficient Haber-Bosch plants. Note: IR (EU) 2026/1740 Annex I publishes no country-specific default for Egyptian semi-finished steel, so CN 7207 11 11 falls back to the "Other countries and territories" value of 3.996 tCO₂e/t — 4.40 with the 2026 mark-up, one of the highest in the regulation. Egyptian steel exporters have a strong financial case for providing verified actual emissions data.
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Book a demoDefault values sourced from IR (EU) 2026/1740 Annex I (European Commission). Net costs are illustrative — actual liability depends on verified embedded emissions, SEFA benchmark deduction, and the applicable CBAM phase-in factor. Not legal or compliance advice.
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